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Solar activity reached moderate levels early this past week with
several flares. An X1 class flare erupted mid week, but activity has
slowed down with the majority of the low level C class flares. A
coronal mass ejection, or CME, was observed on May 27 with a flare
from Region AR4100.  Modelling determined the CME to be well behind
Earths orbit. No other potentially Earth directed CMEs were detected
in available coronagraph imagery. M class flare activity, minor to
moderate, is likely, with a slight chance for X class flare events,
strong or greater, through May 30.  The forecast of Solar and
Geomagnetic Activity to June 21, 2025 Solar activity is likely to
reach moderate levels, R1 to R2 or Minor to Moderate, with a chance
for R3, Strong, over the next three days as Region AR4098, the most
productive region on the visible disk, makes its way to the west
limb of the Sun.  A chance for M class X ray activity, R1 to R2,
will persist throughout the outlook period due to multiple regions
on the visible as well as multiple active regions scheduled to
return from the far side of the Sun.  No proton events are expected
at geosynchronous orbit.  The Geomagnetic field activity is expected
to be at a mostly elevated level due to anticipated influence from
multiple, recurrent coronal holes. G1, or Minor, geomagnetic storms
are likely on June 13 and 14.  Active conditions are likely on June
2, June 5, June 10 and 11, and June 15 to 17.  Unsettled conditions
are likely over June 3 and 4, June 6 and 7, and June 18 to 21.
Quiet conditions are only expected on June 8 and 9.  On May 30,
Spaceweather.com reports on a Super Fast Solar Wind, and a 24 hour
Geomagnetic Storm.  Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere,
and the Earths Ionosphere, May 29, 2025, from F. K, Janda, OK1HH, On
May 29, geomagnetic activity reached the level of a strong storm, a
Kp of 7, worldwide, which came as no surprise to those who had been
monitoring the recurring disturbances during the last four solar
rotations, and especially the developments on the Sun over the last
five days or so.  Solar flares were observed, only occasionally with
coronal mass ejections. Although the large coronal hole in the
southwest of the solar disk disappeared, other coronal holes
appeared across the solar disk in the meantime. The largest of these
extends from the southwest to the northeast and has been crossing
the central meridian since May 26. It has negative polarity and is
associated with the arrival of a high speed stream, up to about 730
km/s. Even in the coming days, after the current disturbance
subsides, mild active storm conditions, a Kp of 4, will continue.
Overall solar activity will increase slightly in the coming days,
and geomagnetically active days will alternate irregularly with
calmer ones. Ionospheric conditions for shortwave propagation will
improve, but at best only to average levels.  Links to articles or
other websites mentioned in this bulletin can be found in
teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2025 Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP020.  The Predicted Planetary A Index is 8,
10, 12, 8, 10, 12, and 10, with a mean of 10.  The Predicted
Planetary K Index is 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.3.
Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 125, 120, 115, 110, 110, 115, and
120, with a mean of 116.4.

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